How to plan to avoid emergency c sec?

Assuming of cos the baby is in right position, no underlying issues and doctor gives go ahead for natural birth. Oh I’ve low pain tolerance 🥲 and possibly want to choose date of birth I do not want a planned c sec before week 39. So I’ve to lean towards a natural birth. There might be a few scenarios 1. Natural baby comes before week 39 2. Induce, natural or Plan c sec after week 39 before week 40 3. Induce, natural? Plan c sec after week 40 ?? I like option 3 😂 Can you share your experiences on why you needed e c sec even tho doc cleared for natural birth? And at what week? Is it true that once baby poops inside it is confirmed e c sec? Once water bag breaks, can still do c sec?